The Reasons Saudi Investment Has Not Turned The Magpies into Championship Challengers

The Newcastle manager is not prone to histrionics or sweeping media pronouncements. Based on his standards, his media briefing after Sunday’s loss to West Ham qualifies as a angry tirade. His side took an early lead but West Ham were ahead by half-time, while also hitting the post and having a penalty overturned by VAR, prompting Howe to make a three substitutions at the break.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” the coach said. “I almost could have taken anyone off and I believe that was a reflection of our performance level in that moment in the game and it’s very, very rare for me to feel that way. Actually, I cannot recall I have since I’ve been head coach of Newcastle, so I felt the squad required some shaking up at the break. This explains why I made those decisions.”

Three key players were substituted at the interval and the team managed to steady somewhat in the second half, without ever appearing like they could get back into the game against a side that had won only one of their previous nine fixtures. Given how packed the centre of the table currently is, with a mere three-point gap separating third from 11th, and a nine-point margin between second and 17th, a run of 12 points from 10 games has not left Newcastle stranded but, equally, they cannot finish the season in 13th.

The Issue of Perception

The challenge to an extent is one of perception. With the Saudi PIF, Newcastle possess the richest backers in the world. The expectation at the time the Saudi fund bought a majority stake of the club in recent years was that it would bring a transformative effect, similar to the former Chelsea owner had at Chelsea or Sheikh Mansour had at Manchester City. The difference is that those two owners took over prior to the introduction of FFP rules (while the ongoing allegations against Manchester City concern whether they breached those regulations after they were in place).

Financial restrictions restrict the capacity of proprietors, however rich, to spend money on their teams and therefore likely might have hindered any Saudi effort to elevate the team to the level of City. But there is no need for Newcastle’s expenditure to have been quite as cautious as it has; they could have spent more and stayed inside the limit – or simply taken a relatively meagre European penalty since their major issue is more with the European than the domestic regulation.

Infrastructure Investment and PSR Rules

Besides which, infrastructure spending is exempted from PSR calculations; the simplest way to raise income to generate additional PSR flexibility would be to extend or renovate the stadium. Given the site of the home ground, with protected structures on multiple sides, practically that probably implies building an completely new venue. Rumors circulated in March of possibly undertaking the short move to Leazes Park – resistance from local groups might have been surmounted with a commitment to build a replacement green space on the existing ground location – but there has not been any progress on that proposal. There has occurred substantial retrenchment from the PIF on a range of initiatives as it refocuses on domestic affairs; the attitude to the football club appears entirely in keeping with that change of approach.

The Alexander Isak Saga

The star striker episode was arose from that tension. A bolder leadership might have portrayed his sale as necessary to free up capital for further spending; instead there was a vain effort to keep him. This resulted in the team started the campaign amidst a sense of disappointment despite the signings of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was indifferent: a single victory in their first six games.

Yet it seemed a corner was reached. They had won five victories in six matches before the weekend, a streak that featured demolitions of a Belgian side and a Portuguese club in the Champions League. That’s why the performance against the Hammers was so surprising. The problem perhaps is that Newcastle’s approach is extremely intense, very high-octane; a slight drop-off in energy can have significant consequences. Perhaps the pressure of Premier League, European and cup competition, five fixtures in 15 days, had got to them. The German forward started all five matches and looked particularly weary.

The Nature of Contemporary Soccer

That’s the reality of today's football. Coaches have to be prepared to rotate. The manager has been unfortunate that Wissa’s injury has left him short of forward choices but, regardless of how reasonable the reasons, Sunday’s performance was unacceptable –especially after scoring first at a ground primed to criticize its own side.

Howe will wish it was just a blip, an off-day when all players is below par at once, but if the Magpies are to qualify for the Champions League next season, let alone one day mount an actual championship bid, they cannot be as unreliable as they have been.